伊朗战火引发能源安全热议，中国做对了什么？

The 1973 and 1979 oil crises popularized the idea of a hydrogen car as countries like Japan and the US sought alternatives to now-pricey gasoline. But oil prices fell, and hydrogen didn't take off. In the 2000s, the narrative of a "hydrogen economy" replacing oil picked up alongside rising oil prices. Once again, to no avail. Japan's post-Fukushima push for a "hydrogen society" has seen little progress because of poor economics for the green molecule.

More recently, the European Union's 2022 response to the Ukraine crisis — the REPowerEU Strategy — called for producing 10 million metric tons of green hydrogen made from renewable electricity in the EU by 2030 and importing another 10 million to reduce dependence on Russian energy and nitrogen fertilizers. Prices of ammonia, a compound of hydrogen and nitrogen and the precursor for such fertilizers, more than tripled between July 2021 and April 2022. But BNEF expects Europe to meet just one-eighth of its REPowerEU production target.

No, Iran War Won't Boost Clean Hydrogen — Except in China

这场伊朗战争不会推动绿氢投资——除了中国以外。

History is likely to repeat itself once again in the case of the Iran-war-induced energy shock — unless the affected governments put money on the table, as might be happening in China.

Look at the US. The Inflation Reduction Act's green hydrogen subsidies were delayed for two and a half years. Now, the new policies to reduce federal spending are posing serious challenges to the development of green hydrogen and related clean energy sectors.

Europe has even bigger problems. Because of technology limits and slow action by member states, the REPowerEU green hydrogen target is not being met at all.

China is the driving force in electrolyser deployment and manufacturing today. The largest deployment took place in China (50%), which accounted for more than half of the global installed capacity of water electrolysis at the end of 2024.

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