八成民众反对仍强行落地？高市早苗打的什么盘算

高市早苗力推的新版《皇室典范》，在一片反对声中落地生效。无视民调结果的她，究竟暗藏什么盘算？中国日报日本研究新媒体专栏《永田町动向》带您一探究竟。

先说新修订的《皇室典范》到底改了啥？

坚持父系男性后裔继承皇位的同时，允许皇室从1947年脱离皇籍的11个旧宫家后代中收养年满15岁、通过父系血脉传承天皇血统的男性成员。养子本人无继承资格，但其男性后代可继承皇位。

While reaffirming that the Chrysanthemum Throne can only be inherited by male descendants in the male line, the new law allows the imperial family to adopt male members aged 15 or older from the 11 former imperial branches that renounced their royal status in 1947. Under the new rules, the adopted member himself has no succession rights, but his male descendants will be eligible to inherit the throne.

说白了一句话：皇室缺人了，要从外面抱。

To put it plainly: the imperial family is running out of men, so they want to bring them in from the outside.

为了抱谁，日本把族谱上翻了600年——翻到久迩家。82岁的久迩朝宏因此被推入公众视野。他退休前是日立的一名技术员，低调了一辈子，如今却低调不下去了。可老人不领情，公开说：不想让后代当天皇，还支持女性当天皇。

To find candidates, Japan traced family trees back more than 600 years — and that is how they landed on the Kuni family. 82-year-old Tomohiro Kuni can no longer keep a low profile after spending a lifetime quietly working as a technician at Hitachi. Kuni wants nothing to do with the new rule. He openly rejected the idea, stating clearly that he has no wish to see his descendants become emperors. In fact, he publicly declared his support for a reigning female emperor.

除了当事人，这次修订几乎人人反对，政治代价很清楚：法案修订后，高市内阁支持率自上台以来首破一半。

Pushback against this revision was swift and near-universal. The political price was immediate: right after the revision passed, Takaichi's cabinet approval rating plunged below the 50 percent mark for the first time since she took office.

那问题来了：人人反对，高市为什么非要硬推？

So here is the big question: If everyone is opposed and her ratings took a hit, why was Takaichi so determined to ram it through?

答案四个字：日本会议——日本最大右翼团体。

The answer comes down to Nippon Kaigi — Japan's largest right-wing nationalist organization.

高市当选自民党总裁后，日本会议发表声明，原文是：“我们期待在高市政权领导下，能够就重要议题达成共识并落实相关制度，包括确立基于男性的稳定皇位继承制度，以及通过将自卫队写入宪法及修改‘紧急事态条款’等宪法修正案。”

When Takaichi was elected LDP president, Nippon Kaigi released a statement outlining its expectations:

"Under the leadership of the Takaichi administration, we look forward to building consensus and enacting systems on key issues — including establishing a stable male-line imperial succession system, as well as constitutional amendments such as enshrining the Self-Defense Forces in the constitution and revising emergency provisions."

您品，您细品——在同一句话中，皇位继承和修宪，并列了。

Did you catch that? In the very same sentence, imperial succession and constitutional revision were placed right next to each other.

高市在乎的不是在国民心目中的形象，而是她保守派基本盘的忠诚度。

Takaichi is not playing for public approval; she is playing for the loyalty of her hardline conservative base.

这次修订就是这台右翼机器第一次完整运转——验证了三件事：动员能出票、议程能推进、反对声能压住。更可怕的是——这可能是修改和平宪法前的一次彩排。

This revision was the first full-scale operation of that right-wing political machine. And it proved three things: mobilization delivers votes, a partisan agenda can be pushed through, and public opposition can be overridden. Even more alarming, critics see this as a dress rehearsal for revising Japan's pacifist Constitution.

高市早苗真正的目标不在皇室。皇室典范只是那把最省力、最不起眼的螺丝刀——不用修宪，就能改宪法的地基，为之后修宪做一次实验。

The Imperial House Law was simply the handiest, least conspicuous screwdriver available — a tool used to quietly loosen the foundations of the constitution without actually amending the text yet. In other words, it was a live trial run for the bigger battle ahead: constitutional revision.

更多日本动向观察，请持续关注中国日报《永田町动向》。

出品人 曲莹璞

监制 邢志刚

制片人 柯荣谊

审核 张春燕

评论员 王旭

编辑 舒乙桁 张小丫 金丹 郭凯

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