「经济学人」High-speed rail

An extra $3bn of federal funding is nice; as for the other $80bn, dream on

The central valley of California is a vast expanse of flat farmland, far from the bustling cities on the state’s coast. How surprising, then, to drive along its straight highways and suddenly see rising on concrete pillars one of America’s most ambitious infrastructure projects in decades: a bullet-train line planned to run between Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The surprise comes not just from its incongruous setting, among almond and plum orchards, but also from the fact that progress in construction is actually visible. The high-speed railway is better known for its ultra-low speed of development. California began planning it three decades ago. In 2008, when the state’s voters approved nearly $10bn in bonds for the train, it was thought that the total cost would run to $33bn and that it would be done by 2020. Now it expects to spend up to $35bn plus another decade just to finish the middle section—171 miles from Bakersfield to Merced, the easiest terrain for building.

Understandably, many in the state have given up on the bullet train. Yet the past half-year has fuelled some optimism. In December the Biden administration granted $3bn to the project. In January the rail authority shortlisted two suppliers for train sets. And throughout the spring construction work has moved ahead, so that the goal to begin testing the line by 2028 may just be attainable. Garth Fernandez, the railway’s Central Valley director, sees that as a potential tipping-point, which will bring it more public and political support. “People getting to touch and feel this, it’s going to make a difference,” he says.

But obstacles big and small still stand in the way. In March, the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), a non-partisan fiscal adviser to California’s legislature, estimated that even after the federal grant, the funding shortfall for the rail line is a whopping $80bn—more than double the state’s annual transport budget. There is no credible plan for raising that money.

Meanwhile, the wildlife is pesky. Fences are designed to keep protected animals out of the building sites, but work must halt if any get in. Recently, the invader was a blunt-nosed leopard lizard. Thankfully, Mr Fernandez reports that the on-site biological monitor was able to coax the four-inch reptile to leave, averting a longer stoppage. Count that as a triumph amid decades of disappointment.

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline "The rusty bullet"(May 16th 2024)

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