人类有可能活到150岁吗？

近日，发表于《自然-衰老》期刊上的新研究发现，由于医疗和技术的进步，人类的预期寿命已经延长了几十年，而现在人类可能正在接近平均寿命的极限。

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🤔️小作业：

1. According to the passage, which of the following best describes the trend in life expectancy in countries where people typically live the longest?

A. Life expectancy is decreasing due to lack of medical advancements.

B. The rate of increase in life expectancy is accelerating.

C. Life expectancy continues to increase but at a slowing rate.

D. Life expectancy has plateaued and shows no signs of change.

无注释原文：

Have We Reached Peak Human Life Span?

From: The New York Times

The oldest human on record, Jeanne Calment of France, lived to the age of 122. What are the odds that the rest of us get there, too?

Not high, barring a transformative medical breakthrough, according to research published Monday in the journal Nature Aging.

The study looked at data on life expectancy at birth collected between 1990 and 2019 from some of the places where people typically live the longest: Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. Data from the United States was also included, though the country's life expectancy is lower.

The researchers found that while average life expectancies increased during that time in all of the locations, the rates at which they rose slowed down.

The data suggests that after decades of life expectancy marching upward thanks to medical and technological advancements, humans could be closing in on the limits of what's possible for average life span.

“We're basically suggesting that as long as we live now is about as long as we're going to live,” said S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago, who led the study. He predicted maximum life expectancy will end up around 87 years — approximately 84 for men, and 90 for women — an average age that several countries are already close to achieving.

During the 20th century, life expectancy rose dramatically, spurred on by innovations like water sanitation and antibiotics. Some scientists have projected that this pace will hold as better treatments and preventions are discovered for cancer, heart disease and other common causes of death. The famous demographer James Vaupel maintained that most children born in the 21st century would live to 100.

But according to the new study, that is unlikely to be the case. The researchers found that instead of a higher percentage of people making it to 100 in the places they analyzed, the ages at which people are dying have been compressed into a narrower time frame.

Dr. Olshansky has long pushed against the idea that life expectancy will steadily climb forever. In a 1990 paper published in Science, he presented a theory that humans were already close to reaching the limit for average life expectancy.

More than 30 years later, he said his new study offers hard data to back up his original hypothesis — a claim even those who have bet against him say has merit.

Steven Austad, a professor of biology at the University of Alabama, Birmingham, who has a wager with Dr. Olshansky that a human alive today will reach 150, said the paper was “excellent” and “establishes beyond doubt” that increases in life expectancy have slowed.

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注：完整题目见本文开头；中文文本为纽约时报官方译文，仅供参考

含注释全文：

Have We Reached Peak Human Life Span?

From: The New York Times

The oldest human on record, Jeanne Calment of France, lived to the age of 122. What are the odds that the rest of us get there, too?

有记录以来最长寿的人类——法国的珍妮·卡尔芒，活到了122岁。我们这些人有多大几率活到这个年纪？

1）表示“可能性，机会；几率，概率”，英文解释为“the probability (= how likely it is) that a particular thing will or will not happen”举个🌰：The overall odds of winning a lottery prize are 1 in 10. 抽中彩票的几率是1/10。

2）表示“不利条件；掣肘的事情；逆境”，英文解释为“something that makes it seem impossible to do or achieve sth”举个🌰：They secured a victory in the face of overwhelming odds. 尽管情况非常不利，他们仍得到了胜利。

📍奥巴马卸任后首次重返白宫 和拜登互开玩笑文中提到，奥巴马讲话：“Despite great odds, Joe and I were determined, because we met too many people on the campaign trail who shared their stories, and our own families had been touched by illness.”“尽管困难重重，乔和我还是下定决心，因为我们在竞选路上遇到了太多分享他们故事的人，我们自己的家庭也被疾病所影响。”

📍great odds 表示“困难重重，困难诸多”，相当于a lot of difficulties，举个🌰：We believe that, despite great odds, we can achieve a peaceful settlement. 我们相信，尽管困难重重，我们还是能够实现和平解决。

Not high, barring a transformative medical breakthrough, according to research published Monday in the journal Nature Aging.

根据周一发表在《自然衰老》（Nature Aging）杂志上的一项研究，除非出现变革性的医学突破，否则机会不高。

barring /ˈbɑː.rɪŋ/ 表示“除非，除…之外”，英文解释为“except if a particular thing happens”举个🌰：We should arrive at ten o'clock, barring any (= if there are no) unexpected delays. 若无意外耽搁，我们应该在10点钟到达。

The study looked at data on life expectancy at birth collected between 1990 and 2019 from some of the places where people typically live the longest: Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. Data from the United States was also included, though the country's life expectancy is lower.

该研究调查了1990年至2019年期间从澳大利亚、法国、意大利、日本、韩国、西班牙、瑞典和瑞士等通常最长寿的地方收集的出生时预期寿命数据。来自美国的数据也包括在内，尽管美国人的预期寿命较低。

life expectancy表示“（尤指人的）预期寿命”，英文解释为“the length of time that a living thing, especially a human being, is likely to live”举个🌰：Life expectancy in Europe increased greatly in the 20th century. 欧洲人的预期寿命在20世纪大幅增长。

The researchers found that while average life expectancies increased during that time in all of the locations, the rates at which they rose slowed down.

研究人员发现，虽然在这段时间里，所有地区的平均预期寿命都有所增加，但增长的速度有所放缓。

The data suggests that after decades of life expectancy marching upward thanks to medical and technological advancements, humans could be closing in on the limits of what's possible for average life span.

由于医疗和技术的进步，人类的预期寿命已经延长了几十年，数据表明，现在人类可能正在接近平均寿命的极限。

“We're basically suggesting that as long as we live now is about as long as we're going to live,” said S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago, who led the study. He predicted maximum life expectancy will end up around 87 years — approximately 84 for men, and 90 for women — an average age that several countries are already close to achieving.

“我们基本上是在说，现在能活多久，今后也就能活多久，”领导这项研究的伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校流行病学和生物统计学教授S·杰伊·奥尔尚斯基说。他预测，人类的最高预期寿命将在87岁左右——男性约为84岁，女性约为90岁——有几个国家已经接近达到这个平均值。

📍epidemiological /ˌepɪˌdiːmiəˈlɑːdʒɪkl/ 形容词，表示“流行病学的”，如：epidemiological research 流行病学研究。

📍epidemiology 名词，英文解释为“the scientific study of the spread and control of diseases”

表示“生物统计学”，英文解释为“Biostatistics is the application of statistical techniques to scientific research in health-related fields, including medicine, biology, and public health, and the development of new tools to study these areas.”

During the 20th century, life expectancy rose dramatically, spurred on by innovations like water sanitation and antibiotics. Some scientists have projected that this pace will hold as better treatments and preventions are discovered for cancer, heart disease and other common causes of death. The famous demographer James Vaupel maintained that most children born in the 21st century would live to 100.

20世纪，在用水卫生和抗生素等创新的推动下，预期寿命大幅上升。一些科学家预测，随着癌症、心脏病和其他常见死因的更好治疗及预防方法被发现，这一速度将保持下去。著名人口统计学家詹姆斯·沃佩尔认为，21世纪出生的大多数孩子将活到100岁。

spur表示“鼓动；激励；鞭策；刺激；鼓舞”，英文解释为“If one thing spurs you to do another, it encourages you to do it.”举个🌰：It's the money that spurs these fishermen to risk a long ocean journey in their flimsy boats. 是金钱驱使这些渔民驾驶单薄的小船冒险出海远航。Spurred (on) by her early success, she went on to write four more novels in rapid succession. 受到之前成功的鼓励，她紧接着又连续写了4部小说。

sanitation /ˌsænɪˈteɪʃən/表示“公共卫生；卫生设备；卫生设施体系”，英文解释为“Sanitation is the process of keeping places clean and healthy, especially by providing a sewage system and a clean water supply.”如：disease resulting from poor sanitation 卫生条件差导致的疾病，the hazards of contaminated water and poor sanitation 污水和不良公共卫生的危害。

antibiotic /ˌæn.ti.baɪˈɒt.ɪk/ 表示“抗生素，抗菌素”，英文解释为“a medicine or chemical that can destroy harmful bacteria in the body or limit their growth”举个🌰：I'm taking antibiotics for a throat infection. 因为嗓子发炎我正服用抗生素。

demographer /dɪˈmɒɡ.rə.fər/ 表示“人口统计学家”，英文解释为“a person who studies changes in numbers of births, marriages, deaths, etc. in an area over a period of time”

But according to the new study, that is unlikely to be the case. The researchers found that instead of a higher percentage of people making it to 100 in the places they analyzed, the ages at which people are dying have been compressed into a narrower time frame.

但根据这项新研究，情况不太可能是这样。研究人员发现，在他们分析的地方，活到100岁的人的比例并没有提高，人们的死亡年龄被压缩到一个更窄的时间范围内。

compress /kəmˈpres/ 表示“压缩；压紧”，英文解释为“to press something into a smaller space”举个🌰：Firmly compress the soil in the pot so that the plant is secure. 把盆里的土压实使植株固定。

time frame /ˈtaɪm ˌfreɪm/ 表示“（安排进行某活动的）时间框架，时间范围”，英文解释为“a period of days, weeks, months, etc. within which an activity is intended to happen”举个🌰：Have you set a time frame for completing the job? 你给这项工作定完成时限了吗？The time frame within which all this occurred was from February 2015 to October 2024. 这一切都是在2015年2月到2024年10月的时间范围内发生的。

Dr. Olshansky has long pushed against the idea that life expectancy will steadily climb forever. In a 1990 paper published in Science, he presented a theory that humans were already close to reaching the limit for average life expectancy.

奥尔尚斯基长期以来一直反对预期寿命将永远稳步攀升的观点。在1990年发表在《科学》杂志上的论文中，他提出了一个理论，即人类已经接近平均预期寿命的极限。

More than 30 years later, he said his new study offers hard data to back up his original hypothesis — a claim even those who have bet against him say has merit.

30多年后，他说他的新研究提供了确凿的数据来支持他最初的假设——即使是那些与他打赌的人也认为不无道理。

hypothesis /haɪˈpɒθ.ə.sɪs/ 表示“假设，假说”，英文解释为“an idea or explanation for something that is based on known facts but has not yet been proved”举个🌰：Several hypotheses for global warming have been suggested. 已经提出了好几种全球变暖的假说。

Steven Austad, a professor of biology at the University of Alabama, Birmingham, who has a wager with Dr. Olshansky that a human alive today will reach 150, said the paper was “excellent” and “establishes beyond doubt” that increases in life expectancy have slowed.

阿拉巴马大学伯明翰分校的生物学教授史蒂文·奥斯塔德曾与奥尔尚斯基打赌，认为今天活着的人可以活到150岁。如今，奥斯塔德说，奥尔尚斯基的论文“非常出色”，“毫无疑问地证明”预期寿命的增长已经放缓。

wager /ˈweɪ.dʒər/ 表示“赌注；打赌”，英文解释为“an amount of money that you risk in the hope of winning more, by trying to guess something uncertain, or the agreement that you make to take this risk”举个🌰：He tried to eat 50 hard-boiled eggs, for a wager. 他为了打赌试图吃下50个全熟的煮鸡蛋。

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