「经济学人」Smoke alarm

Expect more sickness and disrupted schooling

Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

When flames consume household items such as batteries and plastic, toxins are released into the air. A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2024 found that long-term exposure to wildfire smoke was linked to an increase in mortality from heart disease and diabetes. Other studies have found harmful effects, such as higher blood pressure and weaker immune systems.

Wildfires can affect learning, too. Nine schools have been damaged or destroyed by the LA fires, and over half a million children have been affected by school closures. After disruptions in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, maths scores dipped by between 0.10 and 0.25 standard deviations (the equivalent of 13 to 31 days of learning).

Breathing smoke may be bad for young brains. At small doses, the effect is barely detectable: a Stanford University study found that exposure to wildfire smoke at some point during a school year reduced pupils’ test scores by the equivalent of less than a day of learning. But wildfires have grown more intense since 2016, when the study ended, notes Marshall Burke, one of its authors. He estimates that this month’s fires could cause three to four days of learning loss for primary-school pupils whose schools were not destroyed. Not a catastrophe, perhaps, but an unwelcome extra burden for a suffering city. 

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Smoke alarm”(Jan 16th 2024)

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