为什么地震难以准确预测？

为什么地震难以准确预测？

🤔️小作业：

1. Which of the following best describes the scientific consensus on earthquake prediction?

A) It is impossible to predict earthquakes, but scientists are working on future solutions.

B) Scientists believe earthquakes can be forecasted by analyzing past patterns.

C) Earthquake prediction is already accurate but not widely accepted.

D) Scientists expect earthquake forecasting to be possible within the next decade.

无注释原文：

Why earthquake predictions are usually wrong

From: BBC

Brent Dmitruk calls himself an earthquake predictor.

In mid-October, he told his tens of thousands of social media followers that an earthquake would soon hit at the westernmost point of California, south of the small coastal city of Eureka.

Two months later, a magnitude 7.3 struck the site in northern California - putting millions under a tsunami warning and growing Mr Dmitruk's following online as they turned to him to forecast the next one.

But there's one problem: earthquakes can't be predicted, scientists who study them say.

It's exactly that unpredictability that makes them so unsettling.

Lucy Jones, a seismologist who worked for the US Geological Survey (USGS) for more than three decades and authored a book called The Big Ones, has focused much of her research on earthquake probabilities and improving resiliency to withstand such cataclysmic events.

For as long as she has studied earthquakes, Dr Jones said there have been people wanting an answer to when "the big one" - which means different things in different regions - will happen and claiming to have cracked the code.

"The human need to make a pattern in the face of danger is extremely strong, it is a very normal human response to being afraid," she told the BBC. "It doesn't have any predictive power, though."

With some 100,000 earthquakes felt worldwide each year, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS), it is understandable that people want to have warning.

The region, which is where Mr Dmitruk guessed correctly that a quake would occur, is one of the most "seismically active areas" of the US, according to the USGS.

It is the movement of plates in relation to each other - whether above, below or alongside - that causes stress to build up.

Guessing that an earthquake would happen here is an easy bet, Dr Jones said, although a strong magnitude seven is quite rare.

The USGS notes there have been only 11 such quakes or stronger since 1900. Five, including the one Mr Dmitruk promoted on social media, happened in that same region.

While the guess was correct, Dr Jones told the BBC that it's unlikely any earthquake - including the largest, society-destroying types - will ever be able to be forecasted with any accuracy.

There is a complex and "dynamic" set of geological factors that lead to an earthquake, Dr Jones said.

The magnitude of an earthquake is likely formed as the event is happening, she said, using ripping a piece of paper as an analogy: the rip will continue unless there's something that stops it or slows it - such as a water marks that leave the paper wet.

Scientists know why an earthquake occurs - sudden movements along fault lines - but predicting such an event is something the USGS says cannot be done and something "we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future".

- ◆ -

注：完整题目见本文开头；中文文本为BBC官方译文，仅供参考

含注释全文：

Why earthquake predictions are usually wrong

From: BBC

Brent Dmitruk calls himself an earthquake predictor.

布伦特·德米楚克（Brent Dmitruk）自称是一位地震预测者。

In mid-October, he told his tens of thousands of social media followers that an earthquake would soon hit at the westernmost point of California, south of the small coastal city of Eureka.

2024年10月中旬，他在社交媒体上告诉数以万计的关注者，加州最西端、位于沿海小城尤里卡（Eureka）以南的地区即将发生地震。

表示“最西面的；极西的”，英文解释为“furthest towards the west of an area”举个🌰：Ouessant is the westernmost point of France. 韦桑岛位于法国的最西端。

coastal /ˈkəʊ.stəl/ 表示“（位于）海岸的；临海的；沿海的”，英文解释为“positioned on, or relating to the coast”如：a coastal town 海滨城镇。

Two months later, a magnitude 7.3 struck the site in northern California - putting millions under a tsunami warning and growing Mr Dmitruk's following online as they turned to him to forecast the next one.

两个月后，一场芮氏规模（黎克特制）7.3的强震发生在加州北部这片地区，数百万人接收到海啸警报。德米楚克的社交媒体关注人数因此暴增，人们期待他预测下一场地震。

magnitude /ˈmæɡnɪtjuːd/ 1）表示“（尺寸、规模、重要性等）大的程度；巨大；重大，重要性”，英文解释为“the large size or importance of something”举个🌰：They don't seem to grasp the magnitude of the problem. 他们似乎未领会问题的重要性。

2）表示“震级”（the size of an earthquake）

tsunami /tsuːˈnɑː.mi/ 表示“海啸”，英文解释为“an extremely large wave caused by a violent movement of the earth under the sea”

forecast /ˈfɔː.kɑːst/ 可以作名词，也可作动词，表示“预测；预报”，英文解释为“to say what you expect to happen in the future”举个🌰：Snow has been forecast for tonight. 预报今晚有雪。

📍这个词由“fore-”（前面的）和“cast”（投，抛）组成，表示“向前投掷”的意思，引申为“预测”。近义词：prediction（预言），同根词：forecaster（预报员），常用短语：weather forecast（天气预报）

But there's one problem: earthquakes can't be predicted, scientists who study them say.

但问题在于：研究地震的科学家指出，地震根本无法预测。

It's exactly that unpredictability that makes them so unsettling.

这正是地震为何如此令人不安。

表示“令人不安的，使人担忧的”，英文解释为“causing worry or anxiety”举个🌰：One of the documentary's many unsettling images is of a child playing with her father's gun. 纪录片中最令人不安的镜头之一是一个小孩在摆弄父亲的枪。

Lucy Jones, a seismologist who worked for the US Geological Survey (USGS) for more than three decades and authored a book called The Big Ones, has focused much of her research on earthquake probabilities and improving resiliency to withstand such cataclysmic events.

地震学家露西·琼斯（Lucy Jones）在美国地质调查局（USGS）任职超过30年，着有《大地震》（The Big Ones）一书。她的大部分研究都聚焦于地震发生的机率，以及提升人们抵御灾难的韧性。

seismologist /saɪzˈmɒl.ə.dʒɪst/ 表示“地震学家”，英文解释为“someone who studies the sudden, violent movements of the earth connected with earthquakes”

resiliency和resilience在大多数情况下可以互换，更常用resilience，resilience /rɪˈzɪliəns/ 表示“快速恢复的能力；适应力”，英文解释为“the ability of people or things to feel better quickly after sth unpleasant, such as shock, injury, etc.”

cataclysmic /ˈkætəˌklɪzmɪk/ 作形容词，表示“大变动的；激烈的；剧烈的；泛滥的；灾害性的”，英文解释为“A cataclysmic event is one that changes a situation or society very greatly, especially in an unpleasant way.”

名词形式，cataclysm表示“剧变；大灾难；大变动”，英文解释为“an event that causes a lot of destruction, or a sudden, violent change”

For as long as she has studied earthquakes, Dr Jones said there have been people wanting an answer to when "the big one" - which means different things in different regions - will happen and claiming to have cracked the code.

琼斯表示，从她开始研究地震以来，就不断有人想知道“大地震”甚么时候会发生，并声称自己破解了地震预测的“密码”。

crack /kræk/ 作动词，1）表示“（使）破裂；（使）裂开；（使）产生裂纹”，英文解释为“to break something so that it does not separate, but very thin lines appear on its surface, or to become broken in this way”举个🌰：A stone hit the window and cracked the glass. 石块击中窗户，打裂了玻璃。

2）表示“解决（问题）；破译”，英文解释为“to find a solution to a problem”举个🌰：They cracked the code and read the secret message. 他们破译了密码，读取了密电。

3）crack /kræk/ 表示“非法侵入（计算机系统）”，英文解释为“to get into someone else's computer system without permission and get information or do something illegal”

4）表示“碰，撞，击”，英文解释为“to hit something or someone”举个🌰：I cracked my head on/against the door. 我的头撞在门上。

5）表示“说（笑话）；开玩笑，说俏皮话”，英文解释为“If you crack a joke, you tell it.”举个🌰：He drove a Volkswagen, cracked jokes, and talked about beer and girls. 那时他开着一辆大众牌汽车，讲着笑话，谈论着啤酒和女孩。

📰奥巴马卸任后首次重返白宫 和拜登互开玩笑文中提到，INSIDER标题：Obama cracks joke at 'Vice President' Biden during White House event.

作名词，crack /kræk/ 1）表示“裂缝，缝隙；裂口”，英文解释为“a very narrow space between parts of something”举个🌰：Cracks had appeared in the dry ground. 干涸的土地上出现了裂缝。

2）表示“爆裂声；噼啪声”如：the crack of a rifle/whip/breaking branch 步枪/鞭子/树枝断裂的噼啪声。

作形容词，可以表示“优秀的；顶呱呱的；第一流的”，英文解释为“excellent, or of the highest quality”如：a crack regiment 王牌军团，crack troops 精锐部队。

"The human need to make a pattern in the face of danger is extremely strong, it is a very normal human response to being afraid," she told the BBC. "It doesn't have any predictive power, though."

她对BBC表示：“人类在面对危险时，会强烈地想从中找出某种规律，这是对恐惧非常自然的反应。不过，这样的规律感并没有任何预测能力。”

With some 100,000 earthquakes felt worldwide each year, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS), it is understandable that people want to have warning.

根据美国地质调查局的资料，每年全球约有10万次有感地震，因此人们渴望获得警告，是完全可以理解的。

The region, which is where Mr Dmitruk guessed correctly that a quake would occur, is one of the most "seismically active areas" of the US, according to the USGS.

据USGS所称，德米楚克猜中地震发生的那个地区，是全美“地震活动最频繁的区域”之一。

表示“有关地震地”，英文解释为“in a way that relates to or involves an earthquake”Japan is one of the world's most seismically active areas. 日本是世界上地震最活跃的地区之一。

It is the movement of plates in relation to each other - whether above, below or alongside - that causes stress to build up.

地震是由板块之间的相对运动——不论是上、下或彼此错动——所累积的应力释放造成的。

作名词，plate /pleɪt/ 1）表示“盘子，碟子”，英文解释为“a flat, usually round dish with a slightly raised edge that you eat from or serve food from”如：paper/plastic/china plates 纸/塑料/瓷盘子。

2）表示“平板；板条；板材”，英文解释为“a flat piece of something that is hard and does not bend”

Plate在地质学中特指tectonic plate 构造板块，即地球岩石圈（lithosphere）被分割成的刚性巨块。常见搭配：Plate tectonics 板块构造学说，Plate boundary 板块边界，Continental/oceanic plate 大陆板块/大洋板块。

作动词，表示“镀上；用（金、银等）覆镀”，英文解释为“to cover a metal object with a thin layer of another metal, especially gold or silver”举个🌰：We normally plate the car handles with nickel and then chrome. 我们通常先用镍再用铬来镀汽车的拉手。

Guessing that an earthquake would happen here is an easy bet, Dr Jones said, although a strong magnitude seven is quite rare.

琼斯表示，猜测地震会在这里发生其实是“很好猜的”，虽然达到规模7的强震还是相对罕见。

The USGS notes there have been only 11 such quakes or stronger since 1900. Five, including the one Mr Dmitruk promoted on social media, happened in that same region.

美国地质调查局指出，自1900年以来，该地区仅发生过11次规模7或以上的地震，其中五次——包括德米楚克在社交媒体所提到的那次——都发生在同一区域。

While the guess was correct, Dr Jones told the BBC that it's unlikely any earthquake - including the largest, society-destroying types - will ever be able to be forecasted with any accuracy.

尽管这次猜测是正确的，琼斯仍对BBC表示，要准确预测地震发生，几乎不可能，而这包括了那些极具毁灭性的地震。

There is a complex and "dynamic" set of geological factors that lead to an earthquake, Dr Jones said.

她说，造成地震的地质因素是极其复杂且“动态变化”的。

dynamic /daɪˈnæm.ɪk/ 1）表示“思维活跃的；活泼的，充满活力的，精力充沛的”，英文解释为“having a lot of ideas and enthusiasm”举个🌰：She's young and dynamic and will be a great addition to the team. 她年轻活泼，会给团队增添不少活力。

2）表示“不断变化的；不断发展的”，英文解释为“continuously changing or developing”举个🌰：Business innovation is a dynamic process. 商业革新是一个不断变化发展的过程。

The magnitude of an earthquake is likely formed as the event is happening, she said, using ripping a piece of paper as an analogy: the rip will continue unless there's something that stops it or slows it - such as a water marks that leave the paper wet.

琼斯表示，地震的规模很可能是在地震发生的当下才逐渐形成的。她以撕纸作比喻：撕裂会持续进行，除非有甚么东西能阻止或减缓它，例如纸张上因水渍而变得潮湿的部分。

表示“撕裂；撕破；划破”，英文解释为“to pull apart; to tear or be torn violently and quickly”举个🌰：His new trousers ripped when he bent down. 他弯腰时把新裤子撑开了线。

analogy /əˈnælədʒɪ/ 表示“类似；类比；比拟；类推”，英文解释为“a comparison between things that have similar features, often used to help explain a principle or idea”举个🌰：He drew an analogy between the brain and a vast computer. 他把大脑比作一台庞大的计算机。

Scientists know why an earthquake occurs - sudden movements along fault lines - but predicting such an event is something the USGS says cannot be done and something "we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future".

科学家们知道地震的原因是断层突然移动，但USGS明言无法预测地震，而且“我们预期在可预见的未来也无法做到”。

1）表示“（地球表面的）断层线”，英文解释为“a fault (= a break in the earth's surface)”

2）表示“（潜在的）问题，隐忧”，英文解释为“a problem that may not be obvious and could cause something to fail”举个🌰：The fault lines of imperfect peace deals are already showing. 因和平协议不完善而引发的潜在问题已经开始显现。

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