多国科学家宣布新一轮酷热天气正在到来

今天你练听力了吗？

🤔️小作业：

1. According to the passage, what is the significance of the wind shift above the equatorial Pacific?

A. It indicates that the ocean warming is independent of atmospheric changes.

B. It confirms that the atmosphere is reacting to the warmer ocean.

C. It proves that El Niño will become a "super" event.

D. It shows that La Niña has completely ended.

无注释原文：

El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say

From: BBC

El Niño - the natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has officially begun, US scientists say.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Niño conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months.

Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called "super" El Niño, and even be among the strongest ever recorded.

Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year - most likely in 2027 - with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.

This announcement by NOAA is not a surprise as forecasters have expected this warming phase, after the cooler "sister" pattern, La Niña, ended earlier this year.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have now passed the 0.5C-above-average threshold that US scientists use to define an El Niño event.

"El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," the agency said.

NOAA has also seen the winds above the equatorial Pacific begin to shift - a sign that the atmosphere is now responding to the warmer ocean, not just the ocean warming on its own.

What has surprised the researchers is how confident the computer models already are about its strength.

El Niño's intensity is measured by how far sea surface temperatures rise above average in a key zone of the Pacific.

A strong event is defined as more than 1.5C above average; a very strong one above 2C.

According to NOAA's June outlook, "there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," the agency said.

The three strongest events since then have been in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.

Some of the latest US and European (ECMWF) models go further, showing temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially climbing more than 3C above average by the end of the year.

But the US agency urged some caution on what their strength prediction implies.

"Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes."

The bigger concern is that all this is happening on an already much hotter planet.

"We do need to worry about the impacts," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office.

"The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming.

"This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change."

- ◆ -

注：完整题目见本文开头；中文文本为BBC官方译文，仅供参考

含注释全文：

El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say

From: BBC

El Niño - the natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has officially begun, US scientists say.

美国科学家表示，厄尔尼诺（El Niño，圣婴现象）这个会推高全球气温的太平洋地区自然发生的气候现象已正式发生。

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Niño conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months.

美国国家海洋与大气总署（NOAA）宣布，热带太平洋（指赤道南北两侧、大致位于南纬和北纬23.5度之间的太平洋海域）目前正出现厄尔尼诺现象，近几个月海面温度已急剧上升。

atmospheric /ˌæt.məsˈfer.ɪk/ 表示“空气的；大气（层）的”，英文解释为“relating to the air or to the atmosphere”举个🌰：Plants are the main source of atmospheric oxygen. 大气中的氧气主要是植物产生的。

tropical /ˈtrɒp.ɪ.kəl/ 表示“热带的”，英文解释为“from or relating to the area between the two tropics”如：tropical fish 热带鱼。

Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called "super" El Niño, and even be among the strongest ever recorded.

许多预测显示，这次事件最终可能形成所谓的“超级”厄尔尼诺现象，甚至可能是有纪录以来最强之一。

forecast /ˈfɔː.kɑːst/ 可以作名词，也可作动词，表示“预测；预报”，英文解释为“to say what you expect to happen in the future”举个🌰：Snow has been forecast for tonight. 预报今晚有雪。

📍这个词由“fore-”（前面的）和“cast”（投，抛）组成，表示“向前投掷”的意思，引申为“预测”。近义词：prediction（预言），同根词：forecaster（预报员），常用短语：weather forecast（天气预报）

Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year - most likely in 2027 - with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.

在数十年来人类行为导致气候变暖之后，它可能会带来另一个创纪录高温的年份——很可能是在2027年，对天气、粮食供应和经济造成的干扰，影响亦将延续到该年。

This announcement by NOAA is not a surprise as forecasters have expected this warming phase, after the cooler "sister" pattern, La Niña, ended earlier this year.

美国国家海洋与大气总署的这项宣布并不令人意外，因为预报员早已预期在今年稍早较冷的“姊妹”模式拉尼娜（La Niña，反圣婴现象，与厄尔尼诺现象的太平洋中东部海水温度变暖相反，该现象指太平洋中东部海水异常变冷的情况）结束之后，会进入这一气候变暖阶段。

Sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have now passed the 0.5C-above-average threshold that US scientists use to define an El Niño event.

目前，中太平洋与热带太平洋的海面温度已超过高于平均0.5°C的门槛，这是美国科学家用来界定厄尔尼诺事件的标准。

threshold /ˈθreʃ.həʊld/ 表示“界限；临界点；门槛；下限”，英文解释为“A threshold is an amount, level, or limit on a scale. When the threshold is reached, something else happens or changes.”举个🌰：He has a high threshold for pain and a history of fast healing. 他的忍痛力很强，而且有迅速愈合的经历。

"El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," the agency said.

该机构表示：“在过去一个月中，厄尔尼诺现象已经形成，这从赤道太平洋中部到东部的海面温度（SSTs）高于平均即可看出。”

equatorial /ˌek.wəˈtɔː.ri.əl/ 表示“赤道的；赤道附近的”，英文解释为“near the equator, or typical of places near the equator”如：equatorial Africa 非洲赤道附近地区。

NOAA has also seen the winds above the equatorial Pacific begin to shift - a sign that the atmosphere is now responding to the warmer ocean, not just the ocean warming on its own.

美国国家海洋与大气总署也观察到，赤道太平洋上方的风开始转变，这是大气开始对较暖的海洋作出反应的迹象，而不只是海洋在升温。

What has surprised the researchers is how confident the computer models already are about its strength.

让研究人员感到惊讶的是，电脑模型对其强度已经相当笃定。

El Niño's intensity is measured by how far sea surface temperatures rise above average in a key zone of the Pacific.

厄尔尼诺的强度，是由太平洋某个关键区域的海面温度比平均值高出多少来衡量。

intensity /ɪnˈten.sə.ti/ 1）表示“强烈；剧烈”，英文解释为“the quality of being felt strongly or having a very strong effect”举个🌰：The explosion was of such intensity that it was heard five miles away. 爆炸的巨响5英里以外都能听见。

2）表示“（感情或看法的）强烈；认真；全情投入”，英文解释为“the quality of being very serious and having strong emotions or opinions”举个🌰：The intensity of their relationship was causing problems. 他们关系中所牵涉的感情强烈得引发了问题。

3）表示“（光、声等的）强度”，英文解释为“the strength of something that can be measured such as light, sound, etc.”如：measures of light intensity 光强度的测量。

A strong event is defined as more than 1.5C above average; a very strong one above 2C.

强现象被定义为高于平均值1.5°C以上；极强现象为高于2°C以上。

According to NOAA's June outlook, "there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," the agency said.

该机构表示，根据六月的展望，“在11月至1月期间，出现非常强的厄尔尼诺现象机率为63%，将跻身自1950年以来历史纪录中最大的厄尔尼诺事件之一。”

outlook /ˈaʊt.lʊk/ 1）表示“前景；展望”，英文解释为“the likely future situation”举个🌰：The outlook for the economy is bleak. 经济前景暗淡。

2）表示“观点，看法”，英文解释为“a person's way of understanding and thinking about something”举个🌰：He has a fairly positive outlook on life. 他的人生观相当积极。

3）表示“景色，风光，景致”，英文解释为“what you can see from a particular place”举个🌰：From the top of the tower, the outlook over the city was breathtaking. 从塔顶俯视，这座城市的景色令人叹为观止。

The three strongest events since then have been in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.

自那以来，三个最强的事件发生在1982/83、1997/98及2015/16年。

Some of the latest US and European (ECMWF) models go further, showing temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially climbing more than 3C above average by the end of the year.

部分最新的美国和欧洲（ECMWF）模型更进一步显示，到今年年底，热带太平洋的气温可能升至高于平均值超过3°C。

But the US agency urged some caution on what their strength prediction implies.

但该美国机构敦促，需要对其强度预测所代表的意义保持一定的谨慎。

caution /ˈkɔː.ʃən/ 作名词，表示“谨慎，小心，慎重”，英文解释为“great care and attention”举个🌰：We need to proceed with/exercise caution (= be careful in taking action, making decisions, etc.) 我们必须谨慎行事。

作动词，表示“告诫，提醒”，英文解释为“to warn someone”举个🌰：The newspaper cautioned its readers against buying shares without getting good advice first. 报纸告诫读者事先没有获得好的建议，不要购买股票。

"Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes."

“即使是极强的厄尔尼诺事件，也不会在所有地方带来预期的影响，但极强事件会更显著地提高出现预期结果的机率。”

tilt /tɪlt/ 1）表示“（使）倾斜”，英文解释为“to (cause to) move into a sloping position”举个🌰：He tilted his chair backwards and put his feet up on his desk. 他把椅子向后倾，双脚搁在书桌上。

2）表示“使倾向于；使向…倾斜；偏向”，英文解释为“to make sth/sb change slightly so that one particular opinion, person, etc. is preferred or more likely to succeed than another; to change in this way”举个🌰：The conditions may tilt the balance in favour of the runners. 这些条件可能对赛跑运动员有利。Popular opinion has tilted in favour of him. 公众舆论已倒向他一边。

tilt本义是“倾斜”或“倾侧”，如：tilt a table 倾斜桌子，但在体育/竞技语境中，它衍生为“激烈的对抗” 或 “赛事”（可能源于中世纪骑士比武 jousting tilt 的联想）。

tilt the odds意思是“改变可能性 / 使概率向某方向倾斜”，可以理解为“影响结果的可能性”，通常是让某种结果更可能（或更不可能）发生。常见搭配：tilt the odds in favour of someone/something 使概率偏向某人/某事物，tilt the odds against someone 使概率不利于某人。

The bigger concern is that all this is happening on an already much hotter planet.

更大的忧虑在于，这一切正发生在已经明显更热的地球上。

"We do need to worry about the impacts," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office.

英国气象局负责每月到每十年预测的亚当・斯凯夫教授（Prof Adam Scaife）表示：“我们确实需要担心其影响。”

decadal表示“十年的”、“每十年一次的”，来自名词decade（十年）。如：Decadal variability：十年尺度的变异性（指气候或海洋状态在十年之间的波动，比如太平洋十年涛动）；Decadal trend：十年趋势；Decadal prediction：十年预测（预测未来 1-10 年的气候状态，不同于短期天气预报和长期气候变化预估）。

"The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming.

“目前这次厄尔尼诺……是建立在相当程度的全球变暖之上。”

substantial /səbˈstæn.ʃəl/ 1）表示“大的；可观的；价值巨大的；重大的”，英文解释为“large in size, value, or importance”举个🌰：The findings show a substantial difference between the opinions of men and women. 这些发现表明男性和女性之间存在着重大的意见分歧。

2）表示“基本上的；大体上的”，英文解释为“relating to the main or most important things being considered”举个🌰：The committee was in substantial agreement (= agreed about most of the things discussed). 委员会基本上达成了一致意见。

"This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change."

“这意味着，受影响地区的实际气温很可能是前所未有的，因为厄尔尼诺带来的变暖又被气候变化进一步加强。”

unprecedented /ʌnˈpres.ɪ.den.tɪd/ 表示“史无前例的，空前的；绝无仅有的”，英文解释为“never having happened or existed in the past”举个🌰：This century has witnessed environmental destruction on an unprecedented scale. 环境在本世纪遭到了空前的破坏。

词源和词根：un-是“不”的意思，precedented来自拉丁语的praecedere，意为“走在前面”。派生词：unprecedentedly，常用短语：unprecedented event 空前的事件。

🎬电影《星运里的错》（The Fault in Our Stars）中的台词提到：You are so busy being you that you have no idea how utterly unprecedented you are. 你太忙于做自己 都没有意识到自己是那么的令人心动。

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